The announcement of diplomatic punitive measures by New Delhi in reaction to the terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, has caused significant concern within the Pakistani federal government. Among these measures, the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty, established in 1960, stands out as the most crucial. Following this announcement, Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif rapidly convened an emergency meeting of the National Security Committee (NSC), set to commence this morning.
Sources indicate that Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Ishaq Dar, mentioned that the NSC meeting would include key stakeholders such as the Prime Minister, cabinet members, military leaders, and intelligence heads. Reports indicate that India’s Foreign Secretary, Vikram Misri, outlined five significant measures as a strong response to cross-border terrorism, identifying the immediate suspension of the Indus Water Treaty as a pivotal action. Misri emphasized that the treaty would remain suspended until Pakistan effectively renounces its support for cross-border terrorism and directly associated the Pahalgam attack with Pakistan’s actions.
In response, Islamabad expressed sorrow over the casualties from the Pahalgam incident and conveyed condolences to the victims’ families; however, it refrained from addressing New Delhi’s allegations directly. Additionally, there is consideration for a complete ban on imports and exports between the two nations, with an internal note already drafted by the Ministry of Commerce. Although current trade relations remain limited due to official restrictions, there are informal exchanges, with India importing certain fruits and medicines from Pakistan.
Trade turnover reached $2.56 billion in 2018-19 but has since decreased, with India’s exports to Pakistan plummeting to $329 million in 2020-21. In the current fiscal year (2023-24), informal imports from India totaled $258.20 million. Experts caution that a total ban on informal trade could lead to higher costs for essential goods like medicines and sugar for Pakistan.
India has the ability to source dry fruits and certain fruits from alternative suppliers, suggesting that a full trade ban would not severely affect the country. In contrast, Pakistan may experience significant economic repercussions from such a ban. Following recent discussions in a Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) meeting, India announced that all visas for Pakistani nationals residing in the country will only be valid until April 27, while medical visas will expire by April 29. Pakistani individuals currently in India are urged to exit the country promptly. Similarly, Indian citizens living in Pakistan have been advised to return to India as soon as feasible.
In light of the recent terrorist attack in Pahalgam and the decisions taken by the CCS, the Ministry of External Affairs declared a suspension of visa services for Pakistani citizens with immediate effect. Consequently, all existing valid visas for Pakistani nationals issued by India will be annulled as of April 27. Medical visas for these nationals will remain valid only until April 29, necessitating a swift departure before the revised visa period concludes.
The Ministry has also issued strong recommendations for Indian citizens to refrain from traveling to Pakistan. Furthermore, Indian nationals currently in Pakistan are urged to return to India as expeditiously as possible given the current tensions and security concerns. This situation reflects the heightened sensitivity surrounding cross-border relations and the ongoing security challenges that have led to proactive measures by the Indian government to ensure the safety of its citizens, while also impacting the status of Pakistani nationals in India.
